This roundup covers the time period of October 18 through December 10.
October 23 – “Natixis predicts a positive future for aluminium,” Al Circle
Nic Brown, the head of commodities research at Natixis announced at the LME Metals Seminar in London that aluminium prices will average above $2000 per tonne in 2015.
October 27 – “Why China blurs the global aluminum picture,” Reuters
Is the world aluminum market in a supply-demand deficit or surplus? It’s a simple enough question but an extraordinarily difficult one to answer. That much was clear at last week’s LME Seminar. Two respected bank analysts, Citi’s David Wilson and Natixis’ Nic Brown, offered diametrically different views.
October 29 – “The debate between aluminium surplus and aluminium deficit: LME seminar,” Al Circle
October 30 – “US aluminium premiums continue to rise,” Metal Bulletin
October 30 – “Rusal Sees Flat Aluminum Market For the Next 3 Years,” Metal Miner
A recent report by Reuters quoted comments from UC Rusal Deputy Chief Executive Oleg Mukhamedshin at London Metal Exchange Week saying the world’s largest producer did not intend to bring any idled production back onstream for the next 3 years and expected its production to remain flat for the period.
November 5 – “Aluminium premiums reach wire rod, foundry alloy contracts for 2015,” Metal Bulletin
November 7 – “LME Metals Seminar 2014 Highlights,” LME
November 7 – “LME eyes changes to warehouse rules,” American Metal Market
The London Metal Exchange is consulting on changes to its physical delivery network and warehouse agreement, with its aluminum alloy contract and North American special aluminum alloy contract (Nasaac) slated, in particular, for changes.
“We are committed to providing an optimal delivery network for all our users and we encourage market participants to share their views,” LME head of business development Matthew Chamberlain said.
November 10 – “LME to further tighten warehouse rules, starts consultation,” Al Circle
November 12 – “LME’s dismissal in antitrust suit to stand,” American Metal Market
A federal judge will not reconsider her dismissal of the London Metal Exchange from an antitrust lawsuit in US District Court in New York, citing — among other reasons — a lack of intervening changes in the law.
Judge Katherine B Forrest denied aluminium purchasers’ request for reconsideration of the LME’s dismissal from litigation over aluminium warehousing, saying that the plaintiffs had “misread” opinions rendered by the US Supreme Court in relation to a separate case involving foreign sovereign immunity and that new factual considerations presented by the plaintiffs were “not, in fact, new.”
Novermber 13 – “US secondary aluminum market: Scrap prices slip on lower LME, smelter bids,” Al Circle
November 21 – “LME warehousing ‘needs help’: Novelis,” American Metal Market
The London Metal Exchange “needs help” in regulating its warehousing system, a senior executive at Novelis has said, calling on the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to expand its regulatory scope.
Nick Madden, senior vp and chief supply chain officer for US aluminium consumer Novelis, told a US Senate hearing in Washington DC that, despite a more open attitude at the exchange toward implementing change, the LME could not handle everything necessary alone. He also called for banks and trading companies to be banned from owning warehouses and said that rent should be banned for metal stuck in queues. Madden said that these recommendations were his “three wishes”, should he be granted a magic wand. “First, banks and trading companies should not be allowed to own warehouses. Second, we need to clarify the scope of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] to ensure it covers warehousing,” he said. “And third, warehouses should be prohibited from charging rents for commodities such as aluminium when they’re in the queue.”
December 10 – “Monthly Overview: November 2014,” LME